
2 common (and interlinked) concepts concerning shady practice by online poker sites involve claims that sites unfairly favor new players and ‘punish ‘ people who profit and cash out with bad-beats. These ideas are not only common, they're shockingly strongly held. This document looks at both, indicating reasons that explain why these perceptions are so deep-seated and then having a look at the proof supporting them.
We appraise the questions of motive and methodology separately in our article asking ‘Is Online Poker Rigged?, here we will target some reasons explaining why the perception of ‘Beginner’s Luck ‘ have become established in poker communities worldwide. One vital area of poker which many players do not entirely appreciate is the short-term swings of fortune in the game “or rather the scale of the fluctuations in your bankroll made feasible by just one or two key hands. An example will illustrate how easily your bankroll can change:
Imagine 2 identically talented players, each playing in the $100 buy-in No-Limit Holdem games for 25 hours in their first month on the web. Each have identical results winning $4 per hour from the tables while they study the ins and outs. The only difference in their hands came in their opponent’s holding one time when they were dealt a couple of Kings. Player A got all-in pre-flop against a competitor with a couple of Queens, and won $100. Player B also got all-in pre-flop, only this time his contestant had aces and he lost $100 instead.
At the end of their first month:
Player A had grown his bankroll by $200 “a respectable $8 an hour at the $100 NL game.
Player B hadn't grown his bankroll by a single cent.
This is only one hand, if you imagine another where an opponent hit a straight or you were dealt top set against a premium pair you can quickly see how just one or two hands can make a big difference to your cash. As for tournaments the swings can have an even bigger effect. Now, take under consideration that most players start out as slight losers (while they study the ins and outs). Yet, thanks to the chance fall of cards around 1/2 them could see their poker bankrolls grow rapidly in the near term, before the reality of their inferior talents over a period evened things out in favour of more experienced/talented opponents.
Newbs luck is a natural reason “nevertheless the fact that this does not last can be explained by having a big sample size to reduce the effect of your lucky start, and not always by labeling the poker site as cheating.
The Poker Cash Out Curse
When you mull over how simply a good coin-flip or run of premium pairs could cause a players bankroll to grow over the short term. Extrapolating this to the ‘Cash Out Curse‘ becomes simple. The enjoyment of withdrawing those winnings from the poker site blinds players to the undeniable fact that their winnings might have been the results of chance instead of ability. Naturally assuming good fortune is directly due to us and bad fortune by external factors is a great psychological protection mechanism “however it frequently blinds new poker players to the indisputable fact that they won't be as skilled as they initially thought. As in our prior example, 1 or 2 key hands could make a large short term difference. Cashing out that cash is almost always a brilliant idea, however blaming the poker sites for being ‘rigged ‘ when your true win-rate is later exposed is often an inaccurate conclusion to draw!
Is online poker rigged? For an inventory of fair poker sites, try the links provided.
Tags: Cash Out Curse, Fair Poker Sites, online gaming, Poker Rigged